The second-hand market has seen much more normal supply conditions this year. In fact, the used market was oversupplied for most of the year.

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Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mixed, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis) fell 3% in September from August, bringing the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 204.5, in down 0.1% from a year ago, Cox Automotive reported Oct. 7.

The unadjusted price change fell 2.1% in September, bringing it down 2.3% year over year. September 2022 was the first month since May 2020 that wholesale values ​​declined year over year.

“2022 was the year that some of the big increases from 2021 were returned in the value of wholesale used vehicles,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a statement. hurry. “Vehicles depreciate assets again. Looking at the cumulative declines this year, we are down significantly and now expect to end the year with a drop of almost 14% in December. We haven’t seen declines like this since the start of the pandemic and the start of the Great Recession. »

In September, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values ​​recorded above-normal declines that were consistent throughout the month, culminating in a total decline of 2.5% in the three-year index over the four last weeks. MMR is a rating tool used by tens of thousands of vehicle shippers and dealers to rate millions of trade-ins each month. It is designed to be very stable and avoid overreacting to short-term market ups and downs in order to provide an accurate measure of vehicle valuations regardless of market conditions.

In September, the daily retention of MMR, which is the average price difference from the current MMR, averaged 98.4%, meaning that market prices were below MMR values. The average daily sales conversion rate fell slightly to 49.2%, below normal for the time of year. For example, the sales conversion rate averaged 52.1% in September 2019. The lower conversion rate indicates that the month saw buyers with more bargaining power than is typically seen for the period. of the year.

Only three of the eight major market segments posted higher year-over-year seasonally adjusted prices in September. Compact cars saw the largest increase, at 5.9%, followed by vans and pickups, which both rose 0.8%. Prices in the remaining five segments were well below the industry average, with prices for midsize cars only slightly lower. Compared to August, the performance of the eight main segments is down. Full-size cars lost more than 14%. Pickup trucks and compact cars fell the least, at 1.4% and 2.6%, respectively. The remaining five segments (vans, SUVs, midsize, luxury and sports cars) lost between 3.1% and 5.2%.

“Given that we are back to depreciation, it is more likely that the next few months will also see negative numbers; however, we do not expect any major declines,” said Chris Frey, senior director of economic and industry information at Cox Automotive. “We expect the depreciation over the next three months to be slower and weaker than what we just saw over the last quarter.”


Compact cars saw the largest increase, at 5.9%, followed by vans and pickups, which both rose 0.8%.  Pricing for the remaining five segments was well below industry, with mid-size cars only marginally lower.  Compared to August, the performance of the eight main segments is down.  - Graphic: Cox Automotive

Compact cars saw the largest increase, at 5.9%, followed by vans and pickups, which both rose 0.8%. Pricing for the remaining five segments was well below industry, with mid-size cars only marginally lower. Compared to August, the performance of the eight main segments is down.

Graphic: Cox Automotive


Pace of second-hand retail sales slows in September, second-hand supply remains healthy

Based on a set of same-store dealerships selected to represent the country from Dealertrack, Cox estimates second-hand retail sales were down 8% in September compared to August and retail sales of occasion decreased by 10% year-on-year. Compared to September 2019, sales were down 18%, a slight improvement from August, when sales were down 19%, based on same store results.

The second-hand market has seen much more normal supply conditions this year. In fact, the used market was oversupplied for most of the year. Dealers built up inventory in January and February; but due to sales not reaching normal levels in spring and summer, the supply compared to normal, or for example 2019, was high until September.

Using estimates of used retail days supply based on vAuto data, September ended at 48 days of supply, up from 51 days at the end of August, but higher than how September 2021 ended at 41 days. Based on sales and inventory data from Manheim, it is estimated that the wholesale supply ended in September at 27 days, which is higher than the end of September 2021 at 19 days, but in down one day from the end of August.

Total new light vehicle sales in September increased 9.5% year-over-year, with the same number of selling days as in September 2021. In volume terms, new vehicle sales in September increased decreased by 1% compared to August. September SAAR came in at 13.5 million, up 9.6% from last year’s 12.3 million and 2.9% from the pace of 13.1 million. ‘august.

Combined sales of large rental, commercial and government fleets were up nearly 25% year-over-year in September. Charter sales were up 18% year over year, while sales to commercial fleets were up 38% and sales to government fleets were down 2%. Taking into account an estimate of fleet deliveries in dealer and manufacturer channels, remaining retail sales were estimated to be up 8.2%, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 11.8 million, up 0.3 million from last month’s pace, or 2.6%, and up 0.9 million from 10.9 million last year, or 8.5%. Fleet share of 12.3% was down 0.2% from August, but up 1.1% from 11.2% last September.

Rental risk mileage decreases, maintains stability

The average price of units at rental risk sold at auction in September rose 0.6% year over year. Rental risk prices are down 2.9% compared to August. The average rental risk unit mileage in September (at 54,200 miles) was down 4.3% from a year ago and 4.1% from August.

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Full-Year Forecast Lowered

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast for the full year is now expected to end the year down nearly 14% year-over-year. This change from the revised second quarter forecast of a 6% decline was made in recognition that the third quarter saw the largest declines of 2022 and further declines are expected for November and December.

Consumer Confidence Measures Mixed in September

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 4.2% in September. Underlying measures of the current situation and expectations showed gains, but it was the expectations that improved the most. Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months have increased and increased year over year.

The University of Michigan Sentiment Index also saw a slight gain in September. Michigan’s index rose 0.7%, with only an improvement in current conditions. The Conference Board and Michigan datasets do not include survey data representing the entire month, and sentiment weakened in the final days of the month.

Morning Consult’s more current daily consumer sentiment index fell in September, with declines in most of the last 14 days of the month. This index ended down 0.7% for the month, although it had improved earlier in the month. Declines in stock markets and increases in gasoline prices likely influenced the most recent decline.

Originally posted on Vehicle Remarketing

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